Copa Do Brasil · Semi-finals

Gremio vs Atletico-MG Prediction

- : -1 November 2026 at 21:30Brazil
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AuthorAlexander Bryant

Alexander has more than five years of experience producing sports betting content for international audiences. He researches bookmakers, verifies important information and creates practical guides for both new and experienced bettors. His main objective is to make complex betting topics clear, accurate and easy to understand.

Published: 01 Nov 2026

Match preview

Gremio hosts Atletico-MG in the Copa do Brasil semi-final first leg on 2 November 2026 at 00:30. Gremio chases a sixth cup title, Atletico-MG a third. The clubs met in the 2016 final, which Gremio won. The return fixture takes place 7 November in Belo Horizonte.

Gremio advanced past Internacionale with a 0-0 draw away and 3-1 home win. Both goals in their last league match against Atletico Paranaense came from set pieces—a free kick and corner. Gremio can exploit set plays to breach Atletico-MG's defence without overcommitting in open play. Atletico-MG beat Cruzeiro 1-1 away then 2-1 at home, showing resilience after falling behind. Vitao has recovered from a neck injury and trained with the squad, so Atletico-MG's central defence remains intact despite Tressaldi's absence. Gremio must stay sharp in possession; they lost 1-2 and 0-3 to Atletico-MG in the league this season.

Form and H2H

Gremio's last 10 matches show 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses at home, averaging 1.30 goals for and 1.30 against. Atletico-MG's away record over the same span reads 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, with 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The clubs have not met since 2013. Atletico-MG won three of their last four encounters: 2-0 in November 2011, 1-0 in July 2012, and 1-0 in September 2013. Gremio drew 2-2 in August 2011 and 0-0 in September 2012. Gremio's recent form in the league shows two consecutive wins, while Atletico-MG has lost three straight.

Best bet

Gremio to win with handicap 0. Gremio enters as favourites on home soil after progressing through the quarter-final with conviction. Atletico-MG's injury list—Fred, Reiniery, Cassierro, and Borba all out—weakens their attacking depth. Carlos Vinicius remains their primary target man, with Enamorado and Amuzu supporting from the flanks for Gremio. Marlon scored from a set piece last time out and can repeat the pattern. Gremio's need to build an advantage before the return leg in Belo Horizonte adds urgency to their approach.

Odds to watch

1xBet: Home 2.63 / Draw 3.04 / Away 2.91.

Gremio vs Atletico-MG Odds

Bookmaker1X2Bet
1xBet2.633.042.91Place a bet
Best odds2.633.042.91
Average2.633.042.91
Lowest odds2.633.042.91
Compare odds

1X2 prediction for Gremio vs Atletico-MG

Date and time 1 November 2026 at 21:30

1X212.6336%
DC1/X67%
BTTSNo40%
1 36%X 31%2 33%

Gremio win

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Gremio vs Atletico-MG Odds statistic

Average rates from the last stored matches for each team.

GremioGremioLast matchesAtletico-MGAtletico-MG
100%Over 0.5 goals100%
80%Over 1.5 goals60%
20%Over 2.5 goals40%
20%Over 3.5 goals20%
60%BTTS20%
60%Last 5 BTTS20%

Head to Head Gremio — Atletico-MG

In the last 8 meetings, Atletico-MG hold the edge — 4 wins for Gremio, 4 for Atletico-MG, 0 draws.

50% W — 40% D — 050% W — 4
  • Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3:0GremioGremio
    Serie A · 16 Aug 2026
  • GremioGremio2:1Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
    Serie A · 26 Feb 2026
  • Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1:3GremioGremio
    Serie A · 17 Aug 2025
  • GremioGremio2:1Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
    Serie A · 29 Mar 2025
  • Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2:1GremioGremio
    Serie A · 09 Oct 2024
  • GremioGremio2:3Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
    Serie A · 01 Sept 2024
  • Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3:0GremioGremio
    Serie A · 26 Nov 2023
  • GremioGremio1:0Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
    Serie A · 23 Jul 2023
100%Over 0.5100%
88%Over 1.588%
88%Over 2.588%
63%BTTS63%
75%Gremio over 0.588%

Betting profits Gremio vs Atletico-MG

Historical P/L if you backed each side on the main markets in their recent matches.

Gremio

MarketOutcomeP/LWinsGames
Match WinnerWin-2.34515
Match WinnerDraw-1.36415
Match WinnerLose-3.15615
Goals Over/UnderOver 0.5-0.8023
Goals Over/UnderUnder 0.5+4.1813
Goals Over/UnderOver 1.5-1.811015
Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.5+2.25515
Goals Over/UnderOver 2-1.231015
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2+1.15815
Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5-0.75715
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5-0.19815
Goals Over/UnderOver 3.5-1.69415
Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5-0.611115
Goals Over/UnderOver 3-2.00511
Goals Over/UnderUnder 3+0.09811
Goals Over/UnderOver 4.5-1.24212
Goals Over/UnderUnder 4.5-0.781012

Atletico-MG

MarketOutcomeP/LWinsGames
Match WinnerWin+0.69815
Match WinnerDraw-6.72215
Match WinnerLose-3.53515
Goals Over/UnderOver 1.5+1.061215
Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.5-2.05315
Goals Over/UnderOver 2+0.941013
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2-0.62613
Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5+1.27815
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5-1.50715
Goals Over/UnderOver 3-0.31611
Goals Over/UnderUnder 3+0.27811
Goals Over/UnderOver 3.5-1.16415
Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5-0.341115
Goals Over/UnderOver 4.5-4.7719
Goals Over/UnderUnder 4.5+0.1689
Goals Over/UnderOver 0.5+0.2122
Goals Over/UnderUnder 0.5-2.0002

Match statistics

In-play and full-time match stats appear after kick-off.

GremioLast matches Gremio

In the last 5 matches Gremio have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. BTTS landed in 60% of those games.

40% W — 240% D — 220% L — 1
  • GremioGremio2:0Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
    WSerie A · 30 Oct 2026
  • CoritibaCoritiba0:1GremioGremio
    WSerie A · 26 Oct 2026
  • GremioGremio2:4CruzeiroCruzeiro
    LSerie A · 18 Oct 2026
  • GremioGremio1:1InternacionalInternacional
    DSerie A · 11 Oct 2026
  • remoremo1:1GremioGremio
    DSerie A · 07 Oct 2026

Statistics for the last 5 games

Matches
5
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
1
Goals / game
1.4
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
20%
BTTS
60%

Atletico-MGLast matches Atletico-MG

In the last 5 matches Atletico-MG have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. BTTS landed in 20% of those games.

40% W — 20% D — 060% L — 3
  • Atletico-MGAtletico-MG0:1CruzeiroCruzeiro
    LSerie A · 29 Oct 2026
  • FlamengoFlamengo3:2Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
    LSerie A · 26 Oct 2026
  • Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque2:0Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
    LCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 21 Oct 2026
  • Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1:0CoritibaCoritiba
    WSerie A · 17 Oct 2026
  • Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3:0Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque
    WCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 14 Oct 2026

Statistics for the last 5 games

Matches
5
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
3
Goals / game
1.2
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS
20%

Gremio vs Atletico-MG Standings

League table is not available for this competition snapshot yet.

Comparative team statistics

240%Wins40%2
240%Draws0%0
120%Losses60%3
7100%Goals scored86%6
6100%Goals conceded100%6
00%Points0%0

Season statistic Gremio vs Atletico-MG

GremioGremio

  • Matches played 5
  • Won home / away 1 / 1
  • Lost home / away 1 / 0
  • Goals scored 7 (1.4)
  • Goals conceded 6 (1.2)
  • Clean sheets 2
  • Failed to score 0

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

  • Matches played 5
  • Won home / away 2 / 0
  • Lost home / away 1 / 2
  • Goals scored 6 (1.2)
  • Goals conceded 6 (1.2)
  • Clean sheets 2
  • Failed to score 2

Match details

  • Status Not Started
  • Venue Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
  • Referee Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

Lineups

GremioGremio

Lineups are usually published 30–60 minutes before kick-off.

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

Lineups are usually published 30–60 minutes before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Gremio

No absences listed for this fixture yet.

Atletico-MG

No absences listed for this fixture yet.

Independent match preview. Odds and availability change — confirm on the bookmaker site. 18+.

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